Теория вероятностей. Барышева В.К - 37 стр.

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N
H A H
1
H
2
H
3
P (H
1
) = P (H
2
) = P (H
3
) =
1
3
; P (A | H
1
) =
20
20
= 1;
P (A | H
2
) =
10
20
=
1
2
; P (A | H
3
) =
0
20
= 0.
P (A) = P (H
1
)P (A | H
1
) + P (H
2
)P (A | H
2
) + P (H
3
)P (A | H
3
) =
=
1
3
· (1 +
1
2
+ 0) =
1
2
P (H
2
| A) =
P (H
2
)P (A | H
2
)
P (A)
=
1
3
·
1
2
1
2
=
1
3
.
N
5 : 3
2/5 1/3