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(. 2.6),
NOAA Space Environment Center
Boulder. Colorado, USA.
2.6
NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Jan 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 25 2210 UT
#Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z:
Solar activity was low. Region 9794 (N13W03) produced the largest
flare of the past day, a C6/Sn at 25/0225 UTC.
Region 9787 (S09W21) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible
disk but is not particularly complex and has not produced major activ-
ity.
New Regions 9800 (N07E63) and 9801 (S03E77) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate.
C-level activity is expected to continue and there is a small chance
of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 235
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 240/245/250
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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