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19
because other questions seemed relatively more important and more urgent,
and because economists had good reason for diffidence about their ability to
explain the process of growth, but also because the rate of growth in Britain
seemed reasonably satisfactory. Although there was a good deal of general
concern about raising productivity, which was stimulated by comparative
studies of British and US particular industries, there was no reason to feel
that by historical standards, or by comparison with other countries, the
overall rate of growth of the economy was seriously disappointing.
Thus a variety of factors combined in causing growth problems to
remain on the fringe of analysis and discussion, rather than in the centre. In
the course of the nineteen-fifties each one of these factors disappeared.
Text 4
The task of the evaluation of efficiency understood in this way is the
achievement of the minimum investment consistent with the maintenance of
equilibrium in the balance of the labour force and the balance of payments.
In other words, for a given value of exports that covers (together with pos-
sible foreign loans) the value of imports, investment should be fixed at the
lowest level at which the full employment of the labour force is obtained. A
lower level of investment would mean that the plan is unrealistic, given the
unemployment of labour. A higher level of investment would in turn imply
a waste of resources that would negatively affect consumption.
From this argument, on the other hand, one should not draw the con-
clusion that the investment calculus can by itself determine completely the
pattern of foreign trade or even the productive techniques. An obstacle to
obtaining the most effective export pattern can appear due, from the supply
side, to technical organisational factors limiting the growth rate particular
branches, and from the side of demand, to the insufficient absorption capac-
ity of foreign markets. The export pattern is most effective when the rate of
its expansion is low. Also, even the application of some effective technol-
ogy can meet long-term bottlenecks. For instance, the burning of oil is more
effective than the burning of coal, but in Poland that depends on the import
of crude oil, and therefore it raises the foreign trade difficulties mentioned
above.
If we take into account this set of problems, then it appears that the
necessary investment is in principle higher than the level which we would
obtain by applying the 'pure' evaluation of investment efficiency.
It is also worth further illustrating the arguments above, by using
them to answer the frequent question whether manufacturing industries
20
should not be developed, because of their lower capital intensity, rather than
primary industries producing raw materials. If we treat the question inde-
pendently of foreign trade considerations, it really makes no sense at all.
We cannot produce machines rather than copper, since that leads to a sur-
plus of machines and a deficit of copper.
Only if this problem is considered within the context of foreign trade
can an answer to it be found in the calculus of investment efficiency. This
calculus can in fact show that it is more advantageous to produce copper at
home. But even this, in the light of the consideration of section 4 above,
still does not prejudge the issue. The point is that it is not necessarily feasi-
ble for the export of machines to be expanded in order to import copper,
and we might have to sell the machines so cheaply that this becomes inef-
fective. Therefore the construction of a copper mine, regardless of its capi-
tal intensity, can turn out to be, in the end, an appropriate way of imple-
menting the development plan of the economy.
Generally speaking, the so-called problem of the 'directions of devel-
opment' makes sense only when it is treated as the choice of the pattern of
foreign trade (as well as the production technology), because only then does
it not lead to plan imbalance. Once the problem is formulated in this way, it
can be solved by means of the calculus of investment efficiency, provided
allowance is made for the absorption capacity of foreign markets for differ-
ent export goods, and for the technical-organizational barriers to the devel-
opment of the production of particular branches.
Text 5
ECONOMIC GROWTH
A society which has a fantastically high rate of growth of income be-
cause it reinvests all resources above the subsistence minimum and never
enjoys the fruits of this investment cannot be said to behave very sensibly.
On the other hand, there are important uses of a growing national product
besides present and future consumption. There are military objectives, for-
eign aid, space travel. Moreover, we also desire the growth of leisure. And
it is conceivable, though not perhaps very likely, that we are getting better
off by an accelerated growth of longer holidays, shorter working weeks and
a shorter working life, while the rate of growth of measured consumption
declines. This is not very likely, because people do not enjoy their leisure in
pure contemplation, but want more time in order to consume more. The
problem is further complicated by the fact that some leisure activity is non-
measured investment – both physical investment in the form of do-it-
because other questions seemed relatively more important and more urgent, should not be developed, because of their lower capital intensity, rather than
and because economists had good reason for diffidence about their ability to primary industries producing raw materials. If we treat the question inde-
explain the process of growth, but also because the rate of growth in Britain pendently of foreign trade considerations, it really makes no sense at all.
seemed reasonably satisfactory. Although there was a good deal of general We cannot produce machines rather than copper, since that leads to a sur-
concern about raising productivity, which was stimulated by comparative plus of machines and a deficit of copper.
studies of British and US particular industries, there was no reason to feel Only if this problem is considered within the context of foreign trade
that by historical standards, or by comparison with other countries, the can an answer to it be found in the calculus of investment efficiency. This
overall rate of growth of the economy was seriously disappointing. calculus can in fact show that it is more advantageous to produce copper at
Thus a variety of factors combined in causing growth problems to home. But even this, in the light of the consideration of section 4 above,
remain on the fringe of analysis and discussion, rather than in the centre. In still does not prejudge the issue. The point is that it is not necessarily feasi-
the course of the nineteen-fifties each one of these factors disappeared. ble for the export of machines to be expanded in order to import copper,
and we might have to sell the machines so cheaply that this becomes inef-
Text 4 fective. Therefore the construction of a copper mine, regardless of its capi-
The task of the evaluation of efficiency understood in this way is the tal intensity, can turn out to be, in the end, an appropriate way of imple-
achievement of the minimum investment consistent with the maintenance of menting the development plan of the economy.
equilibrium in the balance of the labour force and the balance of payments. Generally speaking, the so-called problem of the 'directions of devel-
In other words, for a given value of exports that covers (together with pos- opment' makes sense only when it is treated as the choice of the pattern of
sible foreign loans) the value of imports, investment should be fixed at the foreign trade (as well as the production technology), because only then does
lowest level at which the full employment of the labour force is obtained. A it not lead to plan imbalance. Once the problem is formulated in this way, it
lower level of investment would mean that the plan is unrealistic, given the can be solved by means of the calculus of investment efficiency, provided
unemployment of labour. A higher level of investment would in turn imply allowance is made for the absorption capacity of foreign markets for differ-
a waste of resources that would negatively affect consumption. ent export goods, and for the technical-organizational barriers to the devel-
From this argument, on the other hand, one should not draw the con- opment of the production of particular branches.
clusion that the investment calculus can by itself determine completely the
pattern of foreign trade or even the productive techniques. An obstacle to Text 5
obtaining the most effective export pattern can appear due, from the supply ECONOMIC GROWTH
side, to technical organisational factors limiting the growth rate particular A society which has a fantastically high rate of growth of income be-
branches, and from the side of demand, to the insufficient absorption capac- cause it reinvests all resources above the subsistence minimum and never
ity of foreign markets. The export pattern is most effective when the rate of enjoys the fruits of this investment cannot be said to behave very sensibly.
its expansion is low. Also, even the application of some effective technol- On the other hand, there are important uses of a growing national product
ogy can meet long-term bottlenecks. For instance, the burning of oil is more besides present and future consumption. There are military objectives, for-
effective than the burning of coal, but in Poland that depends on the import eign aid, space travel. Moreover, we also desire the growth of leisure. And
of crude oil, and therefore it raises the foreign trade difficulties mentioned it is conceivable, though not perhaps very likely, that we are getting better
above. off by an accelerated growth of longer holidays, shorter working weeks and
If we take into account this set of problems, then it appears that the a shorter working life, while the rate of growth of measured consumption
necessary investment is in principle higher than the level which we would declines. This is not very likely, because people do not enjoy their leisure in
obtain by applying the 'pure' evaluation of investment efficiency. pure contemplation, but want more time in order to consume more. The
It is also worth further illustrating the arguments above, by using problem is further complicated by the fact that some leisure activity is non-
them to answer the frequent question whether manufacturing industries measured investment – both physical investment in the form of do-it-
19 20
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