Менеджеры и менеджмент (Executives and Management) - 27 стр.

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201
did not have rules for dealing with it. Many nonprogrammed decisions involve strategic planning, because un-
certainty is great and decisions are complex. Decisions to build a new factory, develop a new product or ser-
vice, enter a new geographical market, or relocate headquarters to another city are all nonprogrammed deci-
sions. When Goodyear CEO Stanley Gault decided to launch four new tires at once and sell through new distri-
bution channels, such as Wal-Mart, Kmart, and Sears, he made a nonprogrammed decision. Gault and other top
executives had to analyze complex problems, evaluate alternatives, and make a choice about how to revive the
failing company.
GERTAINTY, RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND AMBIGUITY
In a perfect world, managers would have all the information necessary for making decisions. In reality,
however, some things are unknowable; thus, some decisions will fail to solve the problem or attain the desired
outcome. Managers try to obtain information about decision alternatives that will reduce decision uncertainty.
Every decision situation can be organized on a scale according to the availability of information and the possi-
bility of failure. The four positions on the scale are certainty, risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity, as illustrated in
Exhibit 9.1 on page 281.
CERTAINTY. Certainty
5
means that all the information the decision maker needs is fully available.
Managers have information on operating conditions, resource costs or constraints, and each course of action
and possible outcome. For example, if a company considers a $10,000 investment in new equipment that it
knows for certain will yield $4,000 in cost savings per year over the next five years, managers can calculate a
before tax rate of return of about 40 percent. If managers compare this investment with one that will yield only
$3,000 per year in cost savings, they can confidently select the 40 percent return. However, few decisions are
certain in the real world. Most contain risk or uncertainty.
RISK. Risk
6
means that a decision has clear-cut goals and that good information is available, but the fu-
ture outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to chance. However, enough information is available
to allow the probability of a successful outcome for each alternative to be estimated. Statistical analysis might
be used to calculate the probabilities of success or failure. The measure of risk captures the possibility that fu-
ture events will render the alternative unsuccessful. Some oil companies use a quantitative simulation approach
to estimate hydrocarbon reserves, enabling oil executives to evaluate the variation in risk at each stage of explo-
ration and production and make better decisions. Apple Computer took a calculated risk by launching a new
line of Macintoshes using the speedy PowerPC chip. The computer maker's future may hinge on new new,
more powerful line, but too aggressive a transition could devastate sales of the company's older, core products.
UNCERTAINTY. Uncertainty
7
means that managers know which goals they wish to achieve, but infor-
mation about alternatives and future events is incomplete. Managers do not have enough information to be clear
about alternatives or to estimate their risk. Factors that may affect a decision, such as price, production costs,
volume, or future interest rates, are difficult to analyze and predict. Managers may have to make assumptions
from which to forge the decision even though it will be wrong if the assumptions are incorrect. Managers may
have to come up with creative approaches to alternatives and use personal judgment to determine which alterna-
tive is best.
For example, Boeing faced great uncertainty in the decision to build the entry-first-century airplane. By-
passing the traditional design route of building mock-ups, Boeing decided to build the new 777 plane, making
the radical jump directly from computer image to finished product. Despite the collapse of air carriers such as
Eastern and Pan Am, Boeing is gambling that its 777 will secure its future by filling the gap between the 218-
passenger
767 and the 419-passenger 747.
Many decisions made under uncertainty do not produce the desired results, but managers face uncertainty
every day. They must find creative ways to cope with uncertainty in order to make effective decisions.
Ambiguity. Ambiguity is by far the most difficult decision situation. Ambiguity
8
means that the goals to
be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear, alternatives are difficult to define, and information about
5
Certainty All the information the decision maker needs is fully available.
6
Risk A decision has clear-cut goals, and good information is available, but the future outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to
chance.
7
Uncertainty Managers know what goal they wish to achieve, but information about alternatives and future events is incomplete.
8
Ambiguity The goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear, alternatives are difficult to define, and information about out-
comes is unavailable.

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