Менеджеры и менеджмент (Executives and Management). Коломейцева Е.М - 22 стр.

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CERTAINTY, RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND AMBIGUITY
In a perfect world, managers would have all the information necessary for making decisions. In reality, however,
some things are unknowable; thus, some decisions will fail to solve the problem or attain the desired outcome. Manag-
ers try to obtain information about decision alternatives that will reduce decision uncertainty. Every decision situation
can be organized on a scale according to the availability of information and the possibility of failure. The four positions
on the scale are certainty, risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity.
CERTAINTY. Certainty
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means that all the information the decision maker needs is fully available. Managers
have information on operating conditions, resource costs or constraints, and each course of action and possible outcome.
For example, if a company considers a $10,000 investment in new equipment that it knows for certain will yield $4,000
in cost savings per year over the next five years, managers can calculate a before tax rate of return of about 40 percent.
If managers compare this investment with one that will yield only $3,000 per year in cost savings, they can confidently
select the 40 percent return. However, few decisions are certain in the real world. Most contain risk or uncertainty.
RISK. Risk
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means that a decision has clear-cut goals and that good information is available, but the future out-
comes associated with each alternative are subject to chance. However, enough information is available to allow the
probability of a successful outcome for each alternative to be estimated. Statistical analysis might be used to calculate
the probabilities of success or failure. The measure of risk captures the possibility that future events will render the al-
ternative unsuccessful. Some oil companies use a quantitative simulation approach to estimate hydrocarbon reserves,
enabling oil executives to evaluate the variation in risk at each stage of exploration and production and make better de-
cisions. Apple Computer took a calculated risk by launching a new line of Macintoshes using the speedy PowerPC chip.
The computer maker's future may hinge on new, more powerful line, but too aggressive a transition could devastate
sales of the company's older, core products.
UNCERTAINTY. Uncertainty
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means that managers know which goals they wish to achieve, but information
about alternatives and future events is incomplete. Managers do not have enough information to be clear about alterna-
tives or to estimate their risk. Factors that may affect a decision, such as price, production costs, volume, or future inter-
est rates, are difficult to analyze and predict. Managers may have to make assumptions from which to forge the decision
even though it will be wrong if the assumptions are incorrect. Managers may have to come up with creative approaches
to alternatives and use personal judgment to determine which alternative is best.
For example, Boeing faced great uncertainty in the decision to build the entry-first-century airplane. Bypassing the
traditional design route of building mock-ups, Boeing decided to build the new 777 plane, making the radical jump di-
rectly from computer image to finished product. Despite the collapse of air carriers such as Eastern and Pan Am, Boeing
is gambling that its 777 will secure its future by filling the gap between the 218-passenger 767 and the 419-passenger
747.
Many decisions made under uncertainty do not produce the desired results, but managers face uncertainty every
day. They must find creative ways to cope with uncertainty in order to make effective decisions.
Ambiguity. Ambiguity is by far the most difficult decision situation. Ambiguity
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means that the goals to be
achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear, alternatives are difficult to define, and information about outcomes is
unavailable. Ambiguity is what students would feel if an instructor created student groups, told each group to write a
paper, but gave the groups no topic, direction, or guidelines whatsoever. Ambiguity has been called a "wicked" decision
problem. Managers have a difficult time coming to grips with the issues. Wicked problems are associated with manager
conflicts over goals and decision alternatives, rapidly changing circumstances, fuzzy information, and unclear linkages
among decision elements. Fortunately, most decisions are not characterized by ambiguity. But when they are, managers
must conjure up goal and develop reasonable scenarios for decision alternatives in the absence of information. When
reports surfaced several years ago that syringes and hypodermic needles had been found in cans of Pepsi, Pepsi-Cola
executives faced ambiguity squarely in the face, as described in the Focus on Decision Making box. Another example
of ambiguity is in the movie industry–one of the most difficult in which to make decisions because so many new mov-
ies are flops. At Warner Brothers, studio executives build personal relationships with top stars, so they will want to do
pictures with the studio. Another approach is to provide stars with a percentage of gross revenues rather than a huge
salary. For Batman, Jack Nicholson received up to 15 percent of the studio take and Michael Keaton, 8 percent. The
stars made millions because Batman was so successful, but they would have made little if it had failed. Warner Brothers
uses these approaches to reduce the financial risks of ambiguity when making new movies.
DECISION-MAKING MODELS
The approach managers use to make decisions usually falls into one of two types–the classical model or the ad-
ministrative model. The choice of model depends on the manager's personal preference, whether the decision is pro-
grammed or nonprogrammed, and the extent to which the decision is characterized by risk, uncertainty, or ambiguity.
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Certainty All the information the decision maker needs is fully available.
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Risk A decision has clear-cut goals, and good information is available, but the future outcomes associated with each alterna-
tive are subject to chance.
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Uncertainty Managers know what goal they wish to achieve, but information about alternatives and future events is incom-
plete.
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Ambiguity The goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear, alternatives are difficult to define, and informa-
tion about outcomes is unavailable.

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