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53
panies' working capital. The Chinese, unlike the Russians, are not en-
riching money launderers and tax havens. A large if unquantifiable
amount of capital returns to China, as foreign investment eligible for
tax breaks.
Nicholas Lardy of the Brookings Institution notes another reason
for the outflows: a huge increase in trade credit extended to foreign
(mainly South-East Asian) buyers of Chinese goods. Chinese firms
have not traditionally got involved in export finance. That changed
when Asian turmoil threatened a collapse in Chinese exports. In the
end, exports reportedly grew by 0,5 % in 1998. That good performance
is explained, says Mr Lardy, by the extension of trade credits and by
cooking of the books by government statisticians.
It will be months before statistics are published for this year's
capital account, just possibly, outflows may be lessening. Trade credits
might be being paid back; the government's anti-smuggling campaign
may succeed. Fewer smuggled imports means less hard currency
stashed offshore.
But Mr Lardy argues against ending the capital-outflow scare.
Trade credit may continue to be extended; and the level of eventual
defaults remains unclear. Capital outflows could thus remain high. The
future for capital inflows, particularly FDI, is also uncertain. FDI may
not yet have dropped sharply, but this is mostly money committed be-
fore foreigners took a grimmer view of China's economic future.
Meanwhile, huge current-account surpluses cannot be expected
to offset capital outflows for ever. The export recovery taking place
this year is weaker than September's 20 % year-on-year growth sug-
gests. That growth came on a very low base last year. The statisticians
may not have to fiddle this year, but exports are unlikely to grow by
more than 5 % in 1999 as a whole: hardly stellar, given the recovery in
the rest of the region. With imports surging, the current-account surplus
could tumble by nearly half. An export sector in difficulties and declin-
ing foreign investment: it is no longer unthinkable that China's perenni-
ally growing foreign reserves, currently $152 billion, might shrink.
And that concern about the yuan could rise.
54
Science and the Nazis
Bullying by numbers
Hitler's Scientists: Science, War, and the Devil's Pact (By John Cornwall)
Mathematicians Under the Nazis
John Cornwell’s account of the dilemmas faced by scientists and
mathematicians after the rise of Hitler begins before the first world
war, when German science was at its peak. German speakers had won
more than half of the Nobel prizes in science, while extensive collabo-
ration with industry led to profitable development of soaps, fertilisers,
pharmaceuticals, dyes and other products. The war had opened a period
of difficulty for the scientific community, but in the late 1925 German
science began to recover its prestige. This was destroyed by the rise of
National Socialism.
After Hitler came to power in 1933, Jewish scientists were dis-
missed en masse from their jobs. Hitler cared little for the damage this
would cause German science. "If science cannot do without Jews, then
we will have to do without science for a few years," he told Max
Planck, a physicist. Indeed, half of Germany's theoretical physicists lost
their jobs, to the immense benefit of Britain and America, which
gained a generation of talented minds.
Some scientists supported the Nazis or used the dismissals for
personal advantage. Empty positions were filled by junior colleagues,
usually without protest or delay. But could scientists opposed to Nazi
policies retain their integrity and continue to work in Germany? Many
scientists chose to stay, and hoped to preserve German science for bet-
ter times. Among them was Max von Laue, another physicist, who had
spoken bravely on Einstein's behalf in the early 1935 (and who is said
to have developed a habit of carrying large parcels under each arm, to
avoid having to give the Nazi salute).
Other cases are more debatable. Mr Cornwell devotes several
chapters to Werner Heisenberg, whose wartime conversations with
Niels Bohr have been famously dramatised in Michael Frayn's recent
play, "Copenhagen". Despite ample opportunity to leave, Heisenberg
chose to remain in Germany and ran the German atomic-bomb pro-
gramme. He made a poor director, and some have suggested that he in
effect sabotaged the programme. Mr Cornwell sees no evidence for
panies' working capital. The Chinese, unlike the Russians, are not en- Science and the Nazis riching money launderers and tax havens. A large if unquantifiable amount of capital returns to China, as foreign investment eligible for Bullying by numbers Hitler's Scientists: Science, War, and the Devil's Pact (By John Cornwall) tax breaks. Mathematicians Under the Nazis Nicholas Lardy of the Brookings Institution notes another reason for the outflows: a huge increase in trade credit extended to foreign John Cornwell’s account of the dilemmas faced by scientists and (mainly South-East Asian) buyers of Chinese goods. Chinese firms mathematicians after the rise of Hitler begins before the first world have not traditionally got involved in export finance. That changed war, when German science was at its peak. German speakers had won when Asian turmoil threatened a collapse in Chinese exports. In the more than half of the Nobel prizes in science, while extensive collabo- end, exports reportedly grew by 0,5 % in 1998. That good performance ration with industry led to profitable development of soaps, fertilisers, is explained, says Mr Lardy, by the extension of trade credits and by pharmaceuticals, dyes and other products. The war had opened a period cooking of the books by government statisticians. of difficulty for the scientific community, but in the late 1925 German It will be months before statistics are published for this year's science began to recover its prestige. This was destroyed by the rise of capital account, just possibly, outflows may be lessening. Trade credits National Socialism. might be being paid back; the government's anti-smuggling campaign After Hitler came to power in 1933, Jewish scientists were dis- may succeed. Fewer smuggled imports means less hard currency missed en masse from their jobs. Hitler cared little for the damage this stashed offshore. would cause German science. "If science cannot do without Jews, then But Mr Lardy argues against ending the capital-outflow scare. we will have to do without science for a few years," he told Max Trade credit may continue to be extended; and the level of eventual Planck, a physicist. Indeed, half of Germany's theoretical physicists lost defaults remains unclear. Capital outflows could thus remain high. The their jobs, to the immense benefit of Britain and America, which future for capital inflows, particularly FDI, is also uncertain. FDI may gained a generation of talented minds. not yet have dropped sharply, but this is mostly money committed be- Some scientists supported the Nazis or used the dismissals for fore foreigners took a grimmer view of China's economic future. personal advantage. Empty positions were filled by junior colleagues, Meanwhile, huge current-account surpluses cannot be expected usually without protest or delay. But could scientists opposed to Nazi to offset capital outflows for ever. The export recovery taking place policies retain their integrity and continue to work in Germany? Many this year is weaker than September's 20 % year-on-year growth sug- scientists chose to stay, and hoped to preserve German science for bet- gests. That growth came on a very low base last year. The statisticians ter times. Among them was Max von Laue, another physicist, who had may not have to fiddle this year, but exports are unlikely to grow by spoken bravely on Einstein's behalf in the early 1935 (and who is said more than 5 % in 1999 as a whole: hardly stellar, given the recovery in to have developed a habit of carrying large parcels under each arm, to the rest of the region. With imports surging, the current-account surplus avoid having to give the Nazi salute). could tumble by nearly half. An export sector in difficulties and declin- Other cases are more debatable. Mr Cornwell devotes several ing foreign investment: it is no longer unthinkable that China's perenni- chapters to Werner Heisenberg, whose wartime conversations with ally growing foreign reserves, currently $152 billion, might shrink. Niels Bohr have been famously dramatised in Michael Frayn's recent And that concern about the yuan could rise. play, "Copenhagen". Despite ample opportunity to leave, Heisenberg chose to remain in Germany and ran the German atomic-bomb pro- gramme. He made a poor director, and some have suggested that he in effect sabotaged the programme. Mr Cornwell sees no evidence for 53 54
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