Пища для ума. Коломейцева Е.М - 56 стр.

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56
of 42 carlots in 1997 and 10 carlots in 1996. Although activity in the cash mar-
ket is increasing at a good pace, estimates show that total sales transactions in
1998 will represent only about 2,5% of total butter production.
More active markets and record high prices are the direct result of limited
butter supplies throughout 1998. Factors such as low milk production, declining
butter stocks, and strong demand for butter, ice cream, and other milkfat pro-
ducts caused the short supply of butter. From 1992 to 1997, U.S. butter produc-
tion has declined about 16% from a high 1,365 million pounds. Preliminary
estimates for 1998 show butter production at about 1,062 million pounds – an
8% decline compared to 1997. Because of extreme weather conditions, milk
production for 1998 recorded only marginal increases – thus limiting annual
growth in the total supply of milkfat. The limited milkfat supplies available to
the market were often utilized first to satisfy the growing demand in higher-
valued markets like ice cream and cream cheese. As is often the case, the de-
mand for butter was treated as a secondary market and was not adequately sup-
plied with milkfat. To satisfy the needs of a growing demand base, butter manu-
facturers had to confront competitors in a free market arena that, according to
some buyers, rivaled the ancient era of Roman gladiators.
Unlike previous years, commercial and government stocks of butter were
not able to provide the market with a buffer that could be used to carry the in-
dustry through the seasonal demands of the summer and fall months. For exam-
ple, butter stocks in May 1998 were estimated at 72,7 million pounds – or about
30% less than May 1997. Unfortunately, many casual observers may conclude
that lower butter stocks in 1998 were related to subsidized exports of butterfat.
In fact, from January through March, butter stocks in 1998 surpassed those of
1997 by an average 8,2 million pounds. Because estimates show that the majority
of subsidized exports occurred from June 1997 to February 1998, it is unlikely
that export activity created the critical shortage of butter in 1998. These obser-
vations are an indication that the lower stocks of butter are likely associated
with far more complex issues – possibly butter pricing and the residual alloca-
tion of milkfat.
Increased imports of butter and butter substitutes in the fall of 1998 helped
provide some relief from the supply crisis. For October and November, total
butter stocks are averaging about 8,9 million pounds higher than 1997 levels.
Depending on December sales activity, the industry could be starting out 1999
with stock levels that are comparable with 1996 and 1997, but about 30% lower
than January 1998.
What to Expect in 1999
– Butter Production: The key to having a relatively stable year in the but-
ter markets will depend on the supply situation. With current production levels
of 1,062 million pounds, very little product is being left on the shelf or in the
warehouses at the end of the year. Given the strong demand for butter, addi-

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