Пища для ума. Коломейцева Е.М - 57 стр.

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57
tional supply is the only variable that will keep butter markets from setting new
records in 1999. Currently, economic models predict that the supply of butter
will increase about 3% in 1999 for a total of 1,088 million pounds. Although
these results are considered somewhat high, other industry analysts do agree
that butter production will rebound in 1999 from its seven-year decline. Cur-
rently, production estimates are ranging from a one percent decline to a three
percent increase relative to 1998. From a statistical perspective, the difference
of four percentage points is insignificant. Compared to an average production
decline of 5,6% since 1996, the industry should view current 1999 production
estimates as a possible turning point.
– Market Prices: Increases in U.S. milk production are going to lead to a
larger supply of milkfat in 1999. Some of the additional supplies will likely be
allocated to the butter markets. Because the butter industry would like to avoid
a repeat of 1998, risk management will largely consist of inventory manage-
ment. Stocks of butter are expected to grow at a moderate pace during the sur-
plus months. With higher inventories and increased production, wholesale but-
ter prices at the cash market are currently not expected to rise above $2. A general
concensus among industry analysts is that market prices will range from $1,15
to $1,90 with a annual average for Grade AA of about $1,50 per pound.
– Daily Trading: In 1998, the butter industry learned to function without
Grade A and B market prices. Additional adjustments for this year are on the
horizon. One of the industry's first challenges of 1999 will involve adjusting to
multiple trading days at the CME. Unless unforeseen events develop, the cash
market at the CME will most likely begin trading butter three days a week be-
ginning sometime in late February or early March. Given the current pricing
system used by the industry, the additional pricing information is likely to re-
sult in some difficulties for butter manufactures. Currently, there are no imme-
diate solutions to the challenges facing the industry. To remain competitive
with additional pricing information, long-term improvements are needed in the
areas of (1) legally binding contracts between buyers and sellers, (2) viable
futures contracts, and (3) efficient pricing of milkfat.
– Price Discovery for Milkfat: People in the industry are concerned about
using butter prices as the basis for establishing the value of cream. Although the
market value of butter and cream will always be highly correlated, additional
pricing information from other products is not being adequately incorporated
into the current pricing system. Butter, like ice cream and cream cheese, is just
one product out of many that utilize milkfat as a primary input. Determining the
value of cream solely on the basis of butter prices is a reckless disregard of
pricing information in other product markets – especially when the other pro-
ducts are utilizing an increasing share of the supply of milkfat.
Although the current pricing structure may have been appropriate
in the past, structural changes in the milkfat market warrant a new pricing me-

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