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32
accumulation because it would only involve recycling between carbon
pools of the biosphere and the atmosphere.
5. Research into the carbon cycle is needed to reduce the uncertainties
surrounding predictions of climatic changes. Although the amount of
carbon dioxide that is released and the amount that remains airborne
is well known, the method by which CO2 is assimilated into sinks,
such as the ocean and the biosphere, is poorly understood. Typical
estimates of the amounts of CO2 absorbed annually by the ocean and
the biosphere are 2 G tons and 1 ton, respectively [4].
VII. CONCLUSION
Carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere is the most dangerous
pollution problem today. This excess of CO2 will cause an increase in the
mean global temperature which should be detectable shortly before the
end of this century. This warming is caused by the greenhouse effect.
CO2 allows incoming radiation from the sun to enter the atmosphere. The
heat from the earth's surface, which must radiate in the infrared region of
the spectrum, is absorbed by CO2 and water vapor, thereby raising the
atmospheric temperature. The greenhouse water-vapor coupling provides
a strong positive feedback mechanism. Fossil-fuel use increases at an
exponential rate of 4.3% annually. This should cause a doubling of CO2
concentrations by between the year 2020 and the year 2075. This doubling
of atmospheric CO2 will cause an increase in the mean global temperature
of about 30° to 50° C. Warmer temperatures will cause a shift in
atmospheric circulation patterns. This will cause local weather patterns to
change. The results for the United States could be intensive drought,
increased tropical storm activity, and a rise in the sea level caused by
melting of the polar ice caps. To lessen the severity of the problem, fossil
fuel consumption must be curtailed and alternate energy sources
developed. Also, a global reforestation program should be undertaken to
provide a large biotic sink for CO2 in the new few decades
INFORMATION SOURCES
1. Bernard, Harold W. The Greenhouse Effect. Cambridge: Ballinger,
1980.
2. Bryson, Reid A. "A Perspective on Climate Change." Science (May 17,
1974), 753-759.
3. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U. S. Senate. Hearings
on the Effects of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the Atmosphere.
Washington: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1980.
4. Committee on Governmental Affairs, U. S. Senate. Carbon Dioxide
Accumulation in the Atmosphere, Synthetic Fuels and Energy Policy.
A symposium. Washington: U. S. Government Printing Office,
Washington: 1979.
5. Gribbin, John. "Fossil Fuel: Future Shock?" New Scientist (December
1980), 541-543.
6. Idso, S. B. "Climate Significance of Doubling CO2 Concentrations."
Science (March 28, 1980), 128-134.
7. Kellog, W. W. and Schneider, S. H. "Climate Stabilization for Better
or For Worse?" Science (December 18, 1974), 1163-1171.
8. Lewin, Roger. "Atmospheric CO2: A New Warning." New Scientist
(April 1975), 211-214.
9. MacDonald, Gordon J. The Long-Term Impacts of Increasing
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels. Cambridge: Ballinger, 1982.
10. Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T. "Distribution of Climate Change
Conclusion
summa-
rises problem and
solution.
