Методические указания по составлению и оформлению научного доклада на профессиональную тему на английском языке. Малетина Л.В. - 30 стр.

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30
V. CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF INCREASED CO2 CONCENTRATIONS
Current estimates for doubling-dates of carbon dioxide concentrations range
from about 2020 to 2075. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels will cause an
increase in the mean global temperature of about 30° to 50° C with an
increase of about 120° C at the polar regions. The reason for the amplified
effect at the poles is that the atmosphere has a much lower concentration of
water vapor at the poles than at lower latitudes. Therefore, an increase in
atmospheric CO2 will cause a relatively larger increase in the greenhouse
effect over the poles. This warming then increases the water vapor present by
melting ice, which causes the process to be self-enhancing.
Changes in Local Weather Patterns
As the temperature of the atmosphere is increased, the global circulation
patterns will be shifted. This will cause widespread changes in local weather
patterns. Although mathematical models devised by meteorologists can
describe overall climatic changes, they are not able to predict these small-
scale variations in local conditions. One method that can be used is to
examine weather records for a period when the temperature was higher than it
is today.
The 1930s As Climate Analog
The most recent global peaked in the 1930s. The 1930s averaged about 10° C
warmer than recent decades have. In the United States, a greater number of
state records for high temperatures were set in the 1930s than in any decade
since the 1870s. The 1° C increase is analogous to the initial decade of CO2-
induced warming which should occur shortly after the turn of the century.
Drought
The most significant feature of a warmer climate is the absence of adequate
precipitation. The drought of the 1930s has been called the greatest disaster
caused by meteorological factors. Research into climate records by studying
tree rings has determined that 1934 was the driest year in the western United
States since 1700. If the atmospheric circulation patterns of the 1930s return
early next century because of warmer temperatures, agricultural production
and water supplies could be seriously affected. Even though food production
would decline, modern agricultural practices would probably prevent a
catastrophe like the dust bowl of the 1930s. Water supply, however, is a
different situation. Particularly hard hit will be the region of the West that
draws water off the Colorado River basin. This region, which is already
plagued by water shortages, could be devastated by a drought that lasts several
years.
Increased Tropical Storm Activity
The warming of the atmosphere will cause the sea temperature to rise as well.
This will result in more tropical storms being generated. The 1930s were a
period of increased tropical storm activity. Twenty-one tropical storms blew
up in 1933, seventeen in 1936; the current average is nine per year. These
storms will also be able to reach higher latitudes because of warmer seas
[1:35-50].

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