Методические указания по составлению и оформлению научного доклада на профессиональную тему на английском языке. Малетина Л.В. - 29 стр.

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Figure 2. Growth Rate of Fuel Use Computed With Two Different Models.
Source: Gordon J. MacDonald. The Long-Term Impacts of Increasing
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels (Cambridge: Ballinger, 1982), 34.
greater than the proven reserves. Obviously, these estimates are greatly
simplified, since they were devised to give minimum times to exhaustion of
energy reserves.
As conventional fossil fuels become more expensive, it is likely that world
fuel usage will shift to a different combination of fuels than used today.
Changes in this fuel mix causes more uncertainty in estimates of future CO2
inputs into the atmosphere. Table 4 gives the dates for doubling of CO2
concentrations for various fuel use combinations [9].
Table 4. Doubling-Dates for Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
for Different Fuel Use Combinations.
Fuel
4.3% Exponential
Growth
Tapered Growth
Current Fuel Mix 2035 2055
All Coal After 1990 2030 2045
All Synthetics After
1990
2022 2030
All Natural Gas
After 1990
2043 2075
Source: Gordon J. MacDonald. The Long-Term Impacts, 84.
If the world use of fossil fuels is maintained at that level, the proven energy
reserves would be exhausted by 2010 to 2015. The second model, and
probably the more accurate one, postulates that the current growth rate will
continue until 1990, and then the rate of growth will decline to zero over a
fifty-year period. Figure 2 graphically compares growth rates from both
models. This tapered growth scenario would postpone the exhaustion of
proven reserves by ten to fifteen years. However, actual use of carbon-based
fuels could continue for some time after this, since the total amount of
recoverable reserves is much

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