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25
Part III. To make a decision
TEXT 1
The Decision – Making Process
The task. Imagine that you have got much money. You have to
choose: to buy a car or a house. Think a bit. Or maybe not much, but
some spare money. What would you choose the first? (to buy a book, to
go to the cinema, to go to the restaurant).
Can you prove, that your decision is right?
Now look through the text and think if it is easy to make any de-
cision. What of decisions are easier to make?
How many groups of people can be determined? Describe them.
All our working life we are concerned with making decisions.
Even at a very early stage we are involved in them, such as deciding
whether to approach the boss, whether to do A before B, whether to try
to sell a customer the $100 set or the $150 set, whether to take a check
or insist on cash. At the very top, the chairman of a large company is
still making decisions, such as whether to buy another company or to
proceed into a new market, or to clinch a particular deal.
At home again there is a series of big decision such as, should we
have another child, or buy a new car or a bigger house? There are also
small decisions: shall we decorate the guest room this week, or shall we
leave it until next year? Shall we plant onions again this year when they
diet so badly last year, or shall we go for some more potatoes?
All these decisions have one thing in common: we are never in
possession of all facts on which to evaluate them thoroughly – in other
words, to prove the point conclusively. If we were able to do this then
perhaps the need for making the decision would be of a different qual-
ity. However, when we are not able to prove the point but must face a
decision on a balance of probabilities or estimates or guesses, then we
are very much dependant on another quality – decisiveness. This is the
capacity to make up our minds and decide to take action, and then take
action when we are not in possession of all the fasts.
At one end of the spectrum, we have people who will make a de-
cision or take action when they have no facts at all or practically no
facts. We would call these people reckless. At the other end of the spec-
26
trum, we have people, who will continue calling for further facts and
doing further investigations without reaching a decision at all. Or there
are those people who keep changing their minds. I’m sure that all of us
have worked with people who come to a conclusion one day and then
rethink the matter the following day and come to a different conclusion.
Who is to say they are wrong? But then action, which is the lifeblood of
business, is not taken perhaps when it should be. In addition, the staff
people who have been looking to us for a lead find it very frustrating if
we keep changing our minds. If they have to adjust to new policies too
frequently, they will come to conclusion that perhaps we do not know
what we are doing.
I'm sure you will have all seen by now that decisiveness comes
with confidence, and confidence comes with knowing what we are do-
ing, or at least thinking that we know what we are doing.
Mechanics of decision-making consists of
1) define the problem,
2) examine the facts,
3) consider the alternatives,
4) include the views of others,
5) decide the course of action,
6) evaluate the results.
For example: it is very important for students of economics fac-
ulty to know English much better. What problem can you see here and
how would you consider (decide the problem).
EXERCISES
1. What decisions do you regularly make? List six of them, and
describe what method you use to make them. Are any of them irrevoca-
ble decisions?
2. What was the biggest decision you have ever made? How did
you make it and was it successful?
3. List three decisions that could be made by using ranking.
4. List three decisions where simple ranking would be improved
by weighting.
5. List three decisions where the use of probabilities would be
significant.
Part III. To make a decision trum, we have people, who will continue calling for further facts and doing further investigations without reaching a decision at all. Or there TEXT 1 are those people who keep changing their minds. I’m sure that all of us have worked with people who come to a conclusion one day and then The Decision – Making Process rethink the matter the following day and come to a different conclusion. Who is to say they are wrong? But then action, which is the lifeblood of The task. Imagine that you have got much money. You have to business, is not taken perhaps when it should be. In addition, the staff choose: to buy a car or a house. Think a bit. Or maybe not much, but people who have been looking to us for a lead find it very frustrating if some spare money. What would you choose the first? (to buy a book, to we keep changing our minds. If they have to adjust to new policies too go to the cinema, to go to the restaurant). frequently, they will come to conclusion that perhaps we do not know Can you prove, that your decision is right? what we are doing. Now look through the text and think if it is easy to make any de- I'm sure you will have all seen by now that decisiveness comes cision. What of decisions are easier to make? with confidence, and confidence comes with knowing what we are do- How many groups of people can be determined? Describe them. ing, or at least thinking that we know what we are doing. All our working life we are concerned with making decisions. Mechanics of decision-making consists of Even at a very early stage we are involved in them, such as deciding 1) define the problem, whether to approach the boss, whether to do A before B, whether to try 2) examine the facts, to sell a customer the $100 set or the $150 set, whether to take a check 3) consider the alternatives, or insist on cash. At the very top, the chairman of a large company is 4) include the views of others, still making decisions, such as whether to buy another company or to 5) decide the course of action, proceed into a new market, or to clinch a particular deal. 6) evaluate the results. At home again there is a series of big decision such as, should we For example: it is very important for students of economics fac- have another child, or buy a new car or a bigger house? There are also ulty to know English much better. What problem can you see here and small decisions: shall we decorate the guest room this week, or shall we how would you consider (decide the problem). leave it until next year? Shall we plant onions again this year when they diet so badly last year, or shall we go for some more potatoes? EXERCISES All these decisions have one thing in common: we are never in possession of all facts on which to evaluate them thoroughly – in other 1. What decisions do you regularly make? List six of them, and words, to prove the point conclusively. If we were able to do this then describe what method you use to make them. Are any of them irrevoca- perhaps the need for making the decision would be of a different qual- ble decisions? ity. However, when we are not able to prove the point but must face a 2. What was the biggest decision you have ever made? How did decision on a balance of probabilities or estimates or guesses, then we you make it and was it successful? are very much dependant on another quality – decisiveness. This is the 3. List three decisions that could be made by using ranking. capacity to make up our minds and decide to take action, and then take 4. List three decisions where simple ranking would be improved action when we are not in possession of all the fasts. by weighting. At one end of the spectrum, we have people who will make a de- 5. List three decisions where the use of probabilities would be cision or take action when they have no facts at all or practically no significant. facts. We would call these people reckless. At the other end of the spec- 25 26
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